[SMM Analysis]Nickel prices continued to pull back on July 29, with Fed officials stating they were not ready to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

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Macro news: (1) "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos published an article stating that Fed officials expect they will ultimately need to continue cutting interest rates, but they are not yet ready to do so on Wednesday. The divergence among them lies in what evidence they need to see first and whether waiting for everything to become clear is a mistake. (2) The Symposium on Market Regulation Development Planning was held in Beijing from the morning of July 27 to July 28. The meeting required efforts to strengthen the domestic market, accelerate the improvement of the basic market regulation system, focus on breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, and regulate enterprises' low-quality and low-price competition in accordance with laws and regulations.

Spot market: Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged from 121,100 to 123,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands was -100 to 300 yuan/mt.

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract fluctuated at lows during the night session, closing down 0.58%. It fell again during today's trading session, closing at 121,800 yuan/mt, down 0.85%.

The short-term sentiment boost from the "anti-rat race" policy on industrial products has gradually faded. The exchange has implemented trading limits on varieties with significant gains, leading to the departure of speculative funds. Nickel prices pulled back sharply during the night session driven by sentiment. Amidst mixed macroeconomic factors, nickel prices have entered a sentiment-driven stage, deviating from fundamentals. Subsequent attention should be paid to the Sino-US tariff negotiations and the Fed's interest rate decision dynamics. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with a projected price range of 120,000-125,000 yuan/mt.